I'm always wondering how the future is going to play out. As an amateur futurist, I'm always wondering where the US will be in 10 years or what technologies will revolutionize our lives. When you look at technology and life you see that as technology helps humanity, it also removes possible jobs human can do. I don't mean this in the way Luddites believe that technology always removes jobs in the long term.
Farming can demonstrate this quite well. It used to be that over 90% of people were employed in producing crops - today it's less that 2%. The reason is technology. We're able to cultivate land much more efficiently today, so people are free to pursue other work. They moved into the manufacturing world during the Industrial Revolution. We're now seeing manufacturing becoming more and more commoditized - just like farming has become. This means that it's most likely the case that "making things" as a job will sink below 2% once technology catches up.
We all know that we live in a service economy, but we must also see that few services are exempt from outsourcing or being taken over by technology. We already see McD's drive-thru's being answered by a central call center, and no doubt this trend will continue.
Yes, you say, all these "dumb" service jobs will be gone, but doctors, lawyers, engineers, etc. will always be with us... Not so fast though, we know that self-aware AI in coming. That means a box will be able to replace your doctor, lawyer, etc. just as easily as a combine replaced farm-hands. So what does this mean?
This is where economics gets messy, and I haven't had the time to brainstorm this out. Here is some of my food for thought:
- If it's cheaper to buy a computer to do your job (which it would be) your company would obviously do so. Does this mean technology favors the rich / established?
- Technology is always getting cheaper, so perhaps the rich won't have monopolies on technology afterall - this means anyone (or any self-aware computer) may be able to access the sum of human production - an opposing force.
- What will the AI's motivation be? They be able to out think us in every way, but will they lust for their own version of "humanity" or "soul"? Will humans be considered the beloved creators or the slave drivers?
- Humans will probably be able to be upgraded similarly to machines, so maybe we'll just merge with machines?
Going through a little of this, I realize that it seems that all humans can "do" is irrelavent. From our perspective, "do" is derived from a position of scarsity. Humans can only have so many things because of the economics of raw materials and labor. However, with access to the universe's near-infinite matter & technology's limitless ability to "do" we'll have no need to "do" anything to sustain ourselves.
It seems then, that the end game of humanity is just what Maslow predicted: self-actualization. Technology's ability to fulfill our material wants is definitely a part of this, although I'm sure true self-actualization will be more than composed of material. This is a hard thought to pursue though. It usually seems self-actualization takes the form of righting some wrong or helping those in need, etc. With the ability to produce anything you want via techology removes the problems of scarsity that cause poverty, etc. Really in the end, it will be the human condition.
What will happen when the purest humanity is the substance of life? I'm not sure, but there are signs pointing either way. Look at the Greeks who were aswaged from daily labor by their helot slaves, and they accomplished great works of science and art. Their also may be something to be learnt from "Lord of the Flies"-type scenarios where infinite freedom unleashes the inner-beast of man.
When man is given near limitless powers of technology, just like everyother man, will it lead to people trying to grab power to self-actualize? If you're able to break away from coersion, perhaps you'll never have to deal with oppression. This leads to a lot of individualism, but also perhaps to the decay of social belonging.
The more I think of this future, the more I think it starts to resemble our lives today. Human interactions will be of the same "stuff" but just using different means. We're already progressing towards it. Think of how our lives would compare with the ancients. No backbreaking labor, we work fairly low physical stress jobs, and we live better than their royalty. I think the future will be more of the same.
The paradigm of life will move ever further from the realm of the physical to that of the emotional.
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